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MRD Watch

Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Independent briefing

Molecular residual disease across cancers, one sourced line at a time.

A daily briefing of sourced, fact-only updates on molecular residual disease, ctDNA, and MRD-relevant biomarkers across cancer types. Edited by Alan Tan, a genitourinary hematologist-oncologist. MRD and biomarker items are listed ahead of other news from the same stretch of days.

Today

Nov 12, 2026 UTC

No update is dated today. The latest verified items are below, with MRD and biomarker reports ranked first.

Leading updates

Pinned items, then MRD and biomarker reports, then newer dates.

Tissue-free ctDNA detection during TNBC surveillance was prognostic, with lead time similar to a tumor-informed assay

A JAMA Oncology analysis published online August 13, 2026, of 1,026 plasma samples from 159 patients in the c-TRAK TN surveillance cohort found that tissue-free ctDNA detection was associated with recurrence (HR 27.2; 95% CI 13.7 to 54.2), and median lead time to recurrence was 7.6 months with the tissue-free assay versus 7.1 months with a multivariant tumor-informed assay.

JAMA Oncology

TRACERx: ultrasensitive tumor-informed ctDNA below 80 parts per million stratified relapse risk in NSCLC

A Cell paper published online November 7, 2025, applied a whole-genome tumor-informed ctDNA assay to 2,994 plasma samples from 431 patients with non-small cell lung cancer in TRACERx and reported that detection below 80 parts per million, before and after surgery, was prognostic, and that patients who cleared ctDNA during adjuvant therapy had better outcomes.

Cell

FDA draft guidance describes bone-marrow MRD negativity plus complete response as an accelerated-approval endpoint in myeloma

On January 21, 2026, the FDA released draft guidance on using minimal residual disease and complete response in multiple myeloma to support accelerated approval, defining the MRD endpoint as bone-marrow negativity by flow cytometry or sequencing in patients who have achieved complete response or stringent complete response, and noting that the April 12, 2024 ODAC unanimously accepted MRD as an accelerated-approval endpoint.

Federal Register

DYNAMIC-III: ctDNA split recurrence risk in stage III colon cancer, and de-escalation missed non-inferiority

In the phase 2/3 DYNAMIC-III trial published in Nature Medicine on October 20, 2025, 702 of 968 evaluable patients with stage III colon cancer were ctDNA-negative 5 to 6 weeks after surgery; 3-year recurrence-free survival was 87% if ctDNA-negative and 49% if ctDNA-positive, de-escalation in the ctDNA-negative group did not meet non-inferiority (85.3% versus 88.1%), and escalation in the ctDNA-positive group did not improve 2-year recurrence-free survival (51% versus 61%).

Nature Medicine

CheckMate 915: tumor-informed ctDNA positivity after resection was associated with melanoma recurrence

A Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer analysis published July 11, 2025, of adjuvant nivolumab with or without ipilimumab in resected stage III or IV melanoma found tumor-informed ctDNA at baseline in 16.2% of tested patients, and ctDNA positivity at baseline or on treatment was associated with recurrence (HR 1.97; 95% CI 1.57 to 2.46).

Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer

High-grade ovarian cancer: ctDNA positivity after frontline therapy independently tracked with shorter PFS

An ASCO 2026 retrospective cohort of 72 patients with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer, 69 of whom were in clinical remission, found ctDNA positivity in 30 and second-look laparoscopy positivity in 33; on multivariable analysis ctDNA positivity predicted shorter progression-free survival (HR 4.35; 95% CI 2.17 to 8.72).

Journal of Clinical Oncology

Recent

FDA approves lutetium Lu 177 vipivotide tetraxetan plus an ARPI for PSMA-positive metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer

On July 31, 2026, the FDA approved lutetium Lu 177 vipivotide tetraxetan with an androgen-receptor pathway inhibitor for PSMA-positive metastatic androgen-pathway-naive or -sensitive prostate cancer, with patients selected using Locametz or another approved PSMA PET product; in PSMAddition (1,144 patients) radiographic progression-free survival HR was 0.72 and median radiographic progression-free survival was not reached in either arm.

U.S. FDA

FDA extends perioperative enfortumab vedotin plus pembrolizumab to all cystectomy-eligible MIBC

On July 10, 2026, the FDA extended perioperative pembrolizumab, or pembrolizumab and berahyaluronidase alfa-pmph, with enfortumab vedotin to adults with muscle-invasive bladder cancer who are candidates for cystectomy, including those eligible for cisplatin; in KEYNOTE-B15/EV-304 (808 patients) event-free survival HR was 0.53 and overall survival HR was 0.65 versus neoadjuvant gemcitabine and cisplatin.

U.S. FDA

FDA approves adjuvant belzutifan plus pembrolizumab for intermediate-high or high-risk clear-cell RCC

On June 12, 2026, the FDA approved belzutifan with pembrolizumab, or with pembrolizumab and berahyaluronidase alfa-pmph, as adjuvant treatment for adults with clear-cell renal cell carcinoma at intermediate-high or high risk of recurrence after nephrectomy, or after nephrectomy and resection of metastases; in LITESPARK-022 (1,841 patients) disease-free survival HR was 0.72 and median disease-free survival was not reached in either arm.

U.S. FDA

FDA approves capivasertib plus abiraterone for PTEN-deficient metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer

On June 12, 2026, the FDA approved capivasertib with abiraterone and prednisone for PTEN-deficient metastatic androgen-pathway-naive or -sensitive prostate cancer, and approved the VENTANA PTEN (SP218) RxDx Assay, which calls PTEN deficiency when at least 90% of viable malignant cells have no specific cytoplasmic staining; in CAPItello-281 (1,012 patients) median radiographic progression-free survival was 33.2 versus 25.7 months (HR 0.81), and overall survival was immature.

U.S. FDA

ALTAIR: trifluridine/tipiracil did not significantly extend DFS after ctDNA turned positive in resected colorectal cancer

In the phase 3 ALTAIR trial published in Nature Medicine on June 8, 2026, 243 patients with resected colorectal cancer who became tumor-informed ctDNA-positive without radiographic disease were randomized to trifluridine/tipiracil or placebo; median disease-free survival was 9.30 versus 5.55 months (HR 0.79; P = 0.107), so the primary endpoint was not met.

Nature Medicine