MRD evidence
What the studies show
Landmark papers an MRD reader should know, including trials that did not meet their aim. Numbers below are taken from the abstracts. Assay names are labels, not a ranking. The full list remains on Research. Multi-cancer early detection is on MCED.
Level 1
A prospective trial in which the ctDNA or MRD result assigns, withholds, or changes treatment. Randomized and single-arm adaptive trials both qualify. Positive and negative trials are listed.
Level 2
A large prospective observational cohort, or a correlative analysis from a phase 3 trial or other large study. The test informs prognosis or describes a treatment association. It does not assign therapy.
Level 3
A smaller cohort, a single-center series, a feasibility study, or an analytical validation. Useful for methods and early signals, not for changing practice on its own.
Must-know papers
- PositiveLevel 12025 · The New England Journal of Medicine
ctDNA-Guided Adjuvant Atezolizumab in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer.
Powles T, et al. PMID 41124204. doi 10.1056/NEJMoa2511885
Phase 3 trial. 761 people with muscle-invasive bladder cancer were monitored with ctDNA after surgery; 250 who tested positive were randomized 2:1 to atezolizumab or placebo. Median disease-free survival was 9.9 versus 4.8 months (HR 0.64) and median overall survival was 32.8 versus 21.1 months (HR 0.59). People who stayed ctDNA-negative were not treated on study.
- PositiveLevel 22021 · Nature
ctDNA guiding adjuvant immunotherapy in urothelial carcinoma.
Powles T, et al. PMID 34135506. doi 10.1038/s41586-021-03642-9
Correlative analysis of a phase 3 adjuvant trial (IMvigor010) that missed its primary endpoint in all randomized patients. Among 581 people evaluable for ctDNA, 214 (37%) were positive and had a poor prognosis on observation (HR 6.3). In the ctDNA-positive group, atezolizumab improved disease-free survival (HR 0.58) and overall survival (HR 0.59). No treatment difference was seen in the ctDNA-negative group.
- PositiveLevel 22024 · European Urology
Updated Overall Survival by Circulating Tumor DNA Status from the Phase 3 IMvigor010 Trial: Adjuvant Atezolizumab Versus Observation in Muscle-invasive Urothelial Carcinoma.
Powles T, et al. PMID 37500339. doi 10.1016/j.eururo.2023.06.007
Updated overall-survival analysis of IMvigor010 by ctDNA status. The abstract reports an overall-survival benefit for adjuvant atezolizumab versus observation in people who were ctDNA-positive.
- PositiveLevel 22026 · Annals of Oncology
Adjuvant nivolumab versus placebo for high-risk muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma: 5-year efficacy and ctDNA results from CheckMate 274.
Galsky MD, et al. PMID 41110694. doi 10.1016/j.annonc.2025.09.139
Five-year update of CheckMate 274. Among 709 people with high-risk muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma, adjuvant nivolumab improved disease-free survival versus placebo (HR 0.74). In a post hoc Signatera analysis, the disease-free survival HR was 0.35 when baseline ctDNA was detectable and 0.99 when it was not.
- PositiveLevel 22024 · JCO Precision Oncology
Longitudinal Testing of Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.
Basu A, et al. Alan Tan is the senior author. PMID 39693589. doi 10.1200/PO-24-00667
Retrospective series, Alan Tan senior author. In 92 people with metastatic renal cell carcinoma tested with Signatera, serial ctDNA negativity or clearance tracked with longer progression-free survival, and longitudinal positivity during surveillance tracked with shorter progression-free survival.
Urine tumor DNA studies
From the utDNA catalog. Plasma ctDNA studies are labeled plasma. Conference abstracts stay labeled as abstracts. These figures are not a ranking.
Peer-reviewed
Detection and Surveillance of Bladder Cancer Using Urine Tumor DNA.
Dudley JC, Schroers-Martin J, Lazzareschi DV, Shi WY, Chen SB, Esfahani MS, Trivedi D, Chabon JJ, Chaudhuri AA, et al.; Alizadeh AA and Diehn M senior.
Cancer Discov 2019.
n: 67 healthy adults and 118 patients with early-stage bladder cancer
Pretreatment or surveillance, early-stage BLCA
Assay: uCAPP-Seq (utDNA CAPP-Seq), targeted high-throughput sequencing
- Median 6 mutations per patient; PLEKHS1 promoter mutations in 46%.
- Pretreatment detection 93% tumor-informed, 84% tumor-naive, 96% to 100% specificity.
- Surveillance: utDNA detected in 91% of patients who ultimately recurred; preceded clinical progression in 92% (median lead time 2.7 months in the full text).
- Outperformed UroVysion (P=0.02) and cytology and cystoscopy combined (P<=0.006); detected 100% of cytology-positive cases and 82% that cytology missed (abstract).
- Surveillance subset in full text: tumor-naive profiling detected 100% of recurrent cases with positive cytology (n=14) and 73.9% with negative cytology (n=23).
Peer-reviewed
Urine cell-free RNA for bladder cancer detection and treatment response prediction.
Liu KJ, Shi WY, Nesselbush MC, Phillips NA, Mach KE, et al.; Alizadeh AA, Liao JC, and Diehn M senior.
Nat Med. Published 2 October 2026. Open access on the Nature page.
n: 683 urine samples from patients with cancer and controls
Detection, MRD, and BCG-versus-chemotherapy response prediction in bladder cancer; also transcripts from prostate and kidney cancers noted.
Assay: uRARE-seq (urine random priming and affinity capture of cell-free RNA fragments for enrichment analysis by sequencing)
- 95% sensitivity at 90% specificity for detecting localized bladder cancer.
- Outperformed urine tumor DNA analysis and was unaffected by field-effect mutations.
- Sensitively detected MRD and distinguished complete molecular responses after surgery from those after BCG.
- Pretreatment urine from BCG complete responders enriched for T-cell and other immune signatures; nonresponders showed higher proliferation-related gene expression.
- In pretreatment urine from 114 patients, a biomarker predicting BCG versus chemotherapy response had AUC 0.93 and was strongly associated with recurrence risk.
- Authors state prospective studies are needed to assess clinical utility.
Peer-reviewed
Field-effect-informed urine liquid biopsy for bladder cancer.
Shi WY, Liu KJ, Esfahani MS, Mach KE et al. Cell 2026;189(4):1024-1038.e9.
n: 261 serial specimens from 61 NMIBC patients (validation); plus training and control analyses described in field_cancerization
Intermediate- or high-risk NMIBC, TURBT and adjuvant BCG
Assay: Field-effect-informed (RePhyNERX-enhanced) uCAPP-Seq, tumor-informed
Peer-reviewed
clinical trial (not utDNA; context)
Perioperative Durvalumab with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Operable Bladder Cancer.
Powles T, Catto JWF, Galsky MD, et al., including van der Heijden MS, NIAGARA Investigators.
N Engl J Med 2024;391(19):1773-1786.
n: 1063 (533 durvalumab, 530 comparison)
Phase 3, cisplatin-eligible MIBC
Assay: n/a (clinical end points)
- 24-month EFS 67.8% vs 59.8%, HR 0.68 (0.56-0.82), P<0.001.
- 24-month OS 82.2% vs 75.2%, HR 0.75 (0.59-0.93), P=0.01.
co-author
Conference abstract
plasma ctDNA (not utDNA)
Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in patients with MIBC who received perioperative durvalumab in NIAGARA.
J Clin Oncol 2025;43(16_suppl):4503.
n: BEP 462 of 1063 (237 D, 225 C)
Exploratory plasma ctDNA in NIAGARA
Assay: Signatera, tumor-informed (Natera)
- Baseline ctDNA+ 57% (260/460), pre-RC 22% (94/422).
- Clearance baseline to pre-RC: 41% durvalumab vs 31% comparator.
- Non-pCR 97% (86/89) if pre-RC ctDNA+.
- Post-RC ctDNA+ 9% (31/345).
- EFS benefit of durvalumab reported in both baseline ctDNA+ and ctDNA- groups.
Conference abstract
utDNA and plasma ctDNA
Urinary tumor DNA (utDNA) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in patients with MIBC who received perioperative durvalumab in NIAGARA.
J Clin Oncol 2026;44(7_suppl):636. ASCO GU 2026. Conference abstract; not a full paper.
n: BEP 265 of 1063 (25%; 134 D, 131 C); utDNA at BL n=205, pre-RC n=183
Exploratory utDNA + ctDNA in NIAGARA, cisplatin-eligible MIBC, pre-cystectomy
Assay: Personalized Signatera (Natera), same framework as the plasma test
- Lower baseline utDNA associated with longer EFS (low vs high HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.40-1.04).
- utDNA+ rate 85% at baseline, 55% pre-RC.
- utDNA clearance associated with longer EFS (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.09-0.62); clearance 39% vs 27% (12 points higher with durvalumab).
- Pre-RC utDNA-: pCR 72% (55/76) vs 18% (17/96) if utDNA+.
- utDNA+ correlated with noninvasive residual disease (<T2N0M0); ctDNA+ with invasive disease or N+/M+.
- 24-month EFS: dual-negative 90% (83-97), utDNA+ only 75% (65-87), dual-positive 55% (41-75).
Conference abstract, exploratory, 25% of ITT. Full paper not found in PubMed.
Peer-reviewed
utDNA and plasma ctDNA MRD (exploratory) plus clinical end points
Gemcitabine Intravesical System Plus Cetrelimab or Cetrelimab Alone as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: SunRISe-4 Primary Analysis and Biomarker Results.
Necchi A, Guerrero-Ramos F, Crispen PL, Herrera-Imbroda B, Garje R, Szabados B, Peyton CC, Pradere B, Ku JH, Shore N, Bogemann M, Preston MA, Xylinas E, Sanchez de Llano C, Gong C, Hasan M, Urtishak K, Battaglia S, Stitou H, Bhanvadia S, Sweiti H, Psutka SP (22 authors on PubMed; Galsky MD is not on this list).
J Clin Oncol 2026;44(7):586-597. Published 3 December 2025.
n: 159 treated; 88 cohort 1 and 46 cohort 2 underwent RC; utDNA available 67 at baseline, 65 at week 12
Phase 2, cisplatin-ineligible or -refusing cT2-T4a N0M0 MIBC planned for RC; 5:3 randomization, cohort 1 TAR-200 + cetrelimab, cohort 2 cetrelimab alone. Data cutoff 9 May 2025.
Assay: utDNA and ctDNA MRD; vendor and gene content not named in the abstract (vendor and gene content are not named in the abstract).
- pCR, pOR (<=ypT1N0), 1-year RFS: 38%, 53%, 77% in cohort 1 vs 28%, 44%, 64% in cohort 2.
- Baseline utDNA+ 55/67 (82.1%); week 12 utDNA+ 34/65 (52.3%).
- Week-12 utDNA- and clearance correlated with pCR (P<10^-5 and P<10^-3 in abstract; Fisher P=5.4e-6 for week-12 status in results text).
- 22/27 (81.5%) who achieved pCR were utDNA- at week 12 vs 7/33 (21.2%) who did not. ROC 0.80 (0.70-0.90); NPV 0.81.
- Clearance in 14/30 (46.7%) with available data (7/18 C1, 7/12 C2). 12/15 (80.0%) baseline+ with pCR had clearance vs 2/15 (13.3%) without pCR.
- ctDNA- at baseline and week 12 associated with longer RFS (P=0.04 and 0.01).
- Authors: utDNA and ctDNA support further investigation as biomarkers for residual local and nonlocal disease, respectively.
Not on the PubMed author list of this JCO paper. Galsky's own utDNA work is the HCRN GU16-257 PNAS 2026 paper.
Peer-reviewed
clinical (utDNA not in main abstract)
TAR-200 for BCG-Unresponsive High-Risk NMIBC: Results From the Phase IIb SunRISe-1 Study.
Daneshmand S, Van der Heijden MS, Jacob JM, et al., including Necchi A.
J Clin Oncol 2025;43(33):3578-3588.
- The main paper’s abstract does not report utDNA. Complete numeric utDNA results from ESMO 2025 abstract 3088P were not extracted from the primary abstract, so those rates are not shown.
ESMO 2025 abstract 3088P (Ann Oncol, S0923-7534(25)04622-8) and a J&J Medical Connect congress PDF address molecular markers including baseline urinary tumor DNA MRD. Complete numeric utDNA results were not independently extracted from the primary abstract. Rates from that abstract are not included.
Peer-reviewed
clinical outcomes in FGFR3/2-altered NMIBC; utDNA/urine FGFR monitoring not in final abstract
Erdafitinib in Patients with High- and Intermediate-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: Final Analysis of THOR-2 Study.
Daneshmand S, Zaucha R, Catto JWF, Tran B, Master V, Lotan Y, et al., including Maranchie JK.
Eur Urol 2026;89(2):165-173.
- Cohort 1 (HR papillary, prior BCG), n=73, 2:1 erdafitinib vs intravesical chemo: median RFS NR (28.6 mo-NE) vs 11.6 mo, HR 0.28 (0.13-0.61), nominal P=0.0007.
- Cohort 2 (CIS +/- papillary), n=16: CR 94% at 8 weeks, 81% at 32 weeks; mDoR 23.3 months.
- Cohort 3 (IR), n=18: CR 89%.
A urine FGFR or utDNA monitoring analysis is not described in the final-paper abstract. How FGFR3/2 alterations were ascertained (tissue vs urine) is not stated in that abstract.
Peer-reviewed
plasma tumor-informed ctDNA (NOT utDNA)
ctDNA-guided immunotherapy following radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer: results from the TOMBOLA trial.
Dyrskjot L, Birkenkamp-Demtroder K, Nordentoft I, et al., including Jensen JB.
Ann Oncol 2026;37(5):712-724.
n: 192 enrolled, 178 assessable, median FU 34 months
Danish multicenter, open-label, single-arm phase 2. MIBC after NAC and RC. ctDNA+ started atezolizumab up to 1 year; ctDNA- received IO only if imaging showed metastases.
Assay: Serial tumor-informed plasma ctDNA (not utDNA)
- 104 (58%) ctDNA+ within 2 years after RC, 63% of those within 4 months.
- Median lead time ctDNA to imaging-confirmed recurrence: 90 days (range -61 to 961).
- 60% (50/84) of ctDNA+ patients who completed atezo with scans/ctDNA for the primary end point achieved complete molecular and radiographic response.
- 1-year RFS 97% if ctDNA- vs 76% if ctDNA+.
Peer-reviewed
plasma ctDNA (NOT utDNA)
Early Detection of Metastatic Relapse and Monitoring of Therapeutic Efficacy by Ultra-Deep Sequencing of Plasma Cell-Free DNA in Patients With Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma.
Christensen E, Birkenkamp-Demtroder K, Sethi H, et al., including Dyrskjot L.
J Clin Oncol 2019;37(18):1547-1557.
n: 68 patients, 656 plasma samples
Assay: Tumor-informed ultra-deep sequencing (median 105,000x)
- ctDNA at diagnosis HR 29.1, P=0.001.
- After cystectomy, ctDNA identified metastatic relapse with 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity; median lead time 96 days.
- ctDNA dynamics during chemo associated with recurrence (P=0.023); pathologic downstaging was not.
Peer-reviewed
utDNA
Urine tumor DNA detection of minimal residual disease in muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with curative-intent radical cystectomy: A cohort study.
Chauhan PS, Chen K, Babbra RK, et al., including Smith ZL, Arora VK, Chaudhuri AA.
PLoS Med 2021;18(8):e1003732.
n: 42 localized bladder cancer (32 MIBC, 19 of those with NAC) and 15 healthy adults
Urine on the day of curative-intent RC
Assay: uCAPP-Seq, tumor-naive (Diehn-group method; WashU / Chaudhuri lab, not a Diehn-lab paper)
- Median utDNA 0% healthy vs 2.4% patients; 4.3% if residual disease (n=16) vs 0% if pCR (n=26), P=0.002.
- utDNA MRD vs absence of pCR: sensitivity 81%, specificity 81%; LOO accuracy 81% (P=0.007).
- PFS HR 7.4 (1.4-38.9), P=0.02.
- Mutation concordance with tumor in 5 patients: 85%.
Peer-reviewed
utDNA multi-omics
Urine cell-free DNA multi-omics to detect MRD and predict survival in bladder cancer patients.
Chauhan PS, Shiang A, Alahi I, et al., including Chaudhuri AA.
NPJ Precis Oncol 2023;7(1):6.
n: 74
Localized bladder cancer
Assay: ULP-WGS plus uCAPP-Seq
- Random-forest LOOCV 87% sensitive for residual disease vs surgical pathology.
- PFS HR 3.00, P=0.01; OS HR 4.81, P=0.009.
- Urine metrics predicted pCR 'far better than plasma ctDNA was able to.'
Peer-reviewed
clinical bladder-sparing (context for utDNA follow-up)
Gemcitabine and cisplatin plus nivolumab as organ-sparing treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer: a phase 2 trial.
Galsky MD, Daneshmand S, Izadmehr S, et al.
Nat Med 2023;29(11):2825-2834.
n: 76
- cCR 43% (33/76, 95% CI 32-55%); 32 of 33 with cCR opted to forgo immediate cystectomy; PPV of cCR 0.97 (0.91-1).
Peer-reviewed
plasma ctDNA and utDNA
Monitoring of plasma and urine tumor-derived DNA to inform bladder-sparing approaches for patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
Galsky MD, Izadmehr S, Yu M, Curtis SD, Douville C, et al., including Bettegowda, Kinzler, Papadopoulos, Vogelstein, Wang Y.
Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2026;123(8):e2533449123.
Exploratory liquid biopsy in the gem/cis/nivo bladder-sparing trial; tumor-informed academic assay; authors note relatively small sample.
Assay: Tumor-informed academic ctDNA and utDNA assay
- 3-year bladder-intact survival among cCR after four rounds of systemic therapy: 69%.
- Metastatic risk if pretreatment ctDNA detectable vs undetectable: HR 4.68 (1.10-43.35), P=0.036.
- Only 4.5% (1 of 22) with undetectable baseline ctDNA developed metastatic disease.
- utDNA more sensitive than plasma ctDNA for residual disease in the bladder.
- Detectable utDNA in patients with cCR associated with shorter bladder-intact survival, HR 6.47 (1.34-31.31), P=0.008.
first author — this is the Galsky utDNA study
Peer-reviewed
tissue/immune biomarkers; utDNA not in abstract
Clinical efficacy and biomarker analysis of neoadjuvant atezolizumab in operable urothelial carcinoma in the ABACUS trial.
Powles T, Kockx M, Rodriguez-Vida A, et al.
Nat Med 2019.
n: 95
- pCR 31% (95% CI 21-41%). Biomarkers are tissue and immune contexture; utDNA is not reported in the abstract.
Peer-reviewed
urine DNA (mutations + aneuploidy)
Non-invasive detection of urothelial cancer through the analysis of driver gene mutations and aneuploidy.
Springer SU, Chen CH, Rodriguez Pena MDC, et al., including Papadopoulos, Kinzler, Vogelstein, Netto.
eLife 2018;7:e32143.
n: 570 at risk for BC; 56 UTUC; surveillance subset
Assay: UroSEEK: 11 genes plus copy-number changes on 39 chromosome arms
- Positive in 83% of those who developed BC; combined with cytology, 95%.
- UTUC: 75% of 56 positive (79% of non-invasive tumors).
- Surveillance: genetic abnormalities in 68% of urines from patients with clinical recurrence.
- Low-grade BC: UroSEEK 67%, cytology 0%.
Peer-reviewed
urine DNA methylation
Urine DNA methylation assay enables early detection and recurrence monitoring for bladder cancer.
Chen X, Zhang J, Ruan W, et al.
J Clin Invest 2020;130(12):6278-6289. utMeMA.
n: Model built in 313; prospective multicenter validation 175
- 2-marker model: accuracy 86.7%, sensitivity 90.0%, specificity 83.1%.
- Early-stage Ta and low-grade: sensitivity 64.5% vs cytology 11.8% and FISH 15.8%.
Peer-reviewed
multitarget urine tumor DNA (mutations + methylation)
Clinical effectiveness of a multitarget urine DNA test for urothelial carcinoma detection: a double-blinded, multicenter, prospective trial.
Wu J, Lin Y, Yang K, et al.
Mol Cancer 2024;23(1):57. UI-Seek.
n: Development 382; prospective validation 947 (ChiCTR2300076543)
Assay: FGFR3 and TERT mutations plus ONECUT2 and VIM methylation
- Sensitivity 91.37%, specificity 95.09%.
- 75.81% for low-grade Ta; >93% for high-grade Ta and higher stages; >90% for both bladder and upper-tract tumors.
- Post-surgery UC-score decreased in 97.7% (43/44).
Peer-reviewed
utDNA methylation (BladMetrix)
Distinct longitudinal patterns of urine tumor DNA in patients undergoing surveillance for bladder cancer.
Vedeld HM, et al.
Mol Oncol 2024;18(11):2684-2695.
n: 47 patients, 2-year surveillance
- Detected 21/23 recurrences (91%): 5/5 T1, T2, and CIS (100%) and 10/12 Ta (83%); <1% false-negative tests.
- Authors estimate a potential 55% reduction in cystoscopies, benefiting 79% of patients (estimate from the paper, not a randomized result).
- 11/23 recurrences (48%) detected earlier with utDNA than cystoscopy.
- Residual-utDNA patterns interpreted as MRD in 6% and field effect in 15%.
Peer-reviewed
urinary tumor-derived DNA plus multi-omics
Elevated T-cell Exhaustion and Urinary Tumor DNA Levels Are Associated with BCG Failure in Patients with NMIBC.
Strandgaard T, Lindskrog SV, Nordentoft I, Christensen E, Birkenkamp-Demtroder K, et al., including Jensen JB, Dyrskjot L.
Eur Urol 2022;82(6):646-656.
n: 156 BCG-treated NMIBC; urine tdDNA n=187 samples
- Absence of post-BCG tdDNA clearance identified patients at high risk of recurrence (P=0.018).
- Post-BCG HG recurrence associated with T-cell exhaustion (P=0.002).
Peer-reviewed
utDNA (UroAmp)
Urine Tumor DNA to Stratify the Risk of Recurrence in Patients Treated with Atezolizumab for BCG-unresponsive NMIBC.
St-Laurent MP, Singh P, McConkey DJ, et al., including Lerner SP, Black PC.
Eur Urol 2025;88(5):430-434. SWOG S1605.
n: UroAmp at baseline n=89 and 3 months n=77
Assay: UroAmp
- CR at 6 months: 13% of UroAmp+ vs 71% of UroAmp- at baseline (P<0.001).
- 18-month EFS 23% vs 51% (HR 2.8, P<0.001).
- Among 51 with no clinical evidence of disease at 3 months: 18-month EFS 38% if UroAmp+ vs 86% if negative (HR 3.5, P=0.01).
Peer-reviewed
utDNA
Postinduction Urine Tumor DNA Is Predictive for Response to Maintenance Intravesical Therapy in NMIBC.
Lotan Y, Korman H, Gadzinski A, et al.
Eur Urol Oncol 2026. INSITE, observational.
n: 140 evaluable, 47% received maintenance
- utDNA-: no significant RFS benefit from maintenance (HR 1.35, 0.50-3.64, P=0.6); 24-month RFS 88% with or without maintenance.
- utDNA+: maintenance associated with better RFS (HR 0.22, 0.09-0.52, P<0.001); 24-month RFS 68% with maintenance vs 16% without.
- Observational; not a randomized test of utDNA-guided maintenance.
Bibliographic catalog
Additional verified 2025-2026 utDNA citations
- Bahlburg et al. J Urol 2026. utDNA in high-risk NMIBC receiving therapy.
- Huang et al. JCO Precis Oncol 2026. Post-resection urinary tumor DNA in NMIBC.
- Wu et al. MedComm 2026. Early detection and recurrence monitoring in NMIBC.
- Cancer Sci 2026. utDNA to identify candidates for repeat TURBT. n=161, residual tumor 35%; sensitivity 80.7%, specificity 96.2%, accuracy 90.7%.
- 2026 longitudinal UTUC utDNA paper.
- Li, Linscott, Murthy, Rose et al. medRxiv. Label as preprint, not a journal article.Preprint, not a journal article
Genitourinary
Level 1
- PositiveNot named in the abstractctDNA-Guided Adjuvant Atezolizumab in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer.
Powles T, et al. The New England Journal of Medicine. 2025. PMID 41124204. doi 10.1056/NEJMoa2511885
A phase 3 trial used serial ctDNA testing for up to a year after cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer to select who received adjuvant atezolizumab. The abstract does not name the assay.
Conference data
- Level 1positiveASCO Annual Meeting 2026
Patient-reported outcomes from IMvigor011: A phase 3 study of circulating tumor (ct)DNA-guided adjuvant atezolizumab vs placebo in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC).
Bellmunt, Joaquim · Abstract 4627 · IMvigor011 · 250 ctDNA-positive patients randomized (167 atezolizumab, 83 placebo)
not named in the abstract
Time to confirmed deterioration in physical functioning, role functioning, and global health status/quality of life showed no evidence of a difference between atezolizumab and placebo. More than 90% of patients in both arms reported little or no treatment side-effect burden through cycle 11. The abstract concludes ctDNA-guided adjuvant atezolizumab improved DFS and OS without negatively affecting patient-reported quality of life.
- Level 1mixedASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2026
Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) to guide response-adapted bladder preservation in muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC).
Ghatalia, Pooja · Abstract LBA632 · LBA · RETAIN-2 (and combined RETAIN-1/2) · 71 evaluable RETAIN-2 patients; combined ctDNA analysis across RETAIN-1/2: 274 timepoints from 111 patients
Signatera (named in the abstract)
Estimated 2-year metastasis-free survival was 79.8% in the RETAIN-2 ITT population; the abstract states RETAIN-2 is expected to meet its primary MFS endpoint. Among 22 active-surveillance patients, 16 (73%) remained metastasis-free with an intact bladder. Post-treatment ctDNA negativity or clearance predicted lower recurrence (34.8% and 43.8%) than persistent positivity or non-clearance (85.7% and 91.7%). Among active-surveillance patients who were ctDNA-negative after treatment, 24-month MFS was 82.4% but 24-month RFS was 50.7%, driven by local recurrences: 19 of 22 who recurred on active surveillance were ctDNA-negative after treatment.
- Level 1positiveASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2026
Circulating tumor (ct)DNA-guided adjuvant atezolizumab (atezo) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC): Exploratory analysis of ctDNA dynamics in the IMvigor011 trial.
Powles, Thomas · Abstract 633 · IMvigor011 · 379 patients who tested ctDNA-positive during surveillance; on-treatment dynamics in 165 atezolizumab and 83 placebo
not named in the abstract (results reported as mean tumor molecules/mL)
Of patients first testing ctDNA-positive, 74.1% (281/379) did so within 24 weeks of radical cystectomy; early positivity and higher baseline concentration (median 0.27 MTM/mL) were associated with shorter investigator-assessed DFS. Atezolizumab decreased ctDNA levels between cycle 1 and 3 (log2 fold-change -0.4) while levels increased on placebo (log2 fold-change 0.5; Wilcoxon P=0.009). Clearance at cycle 3 or 5 was associated with improved DFS and OS.
- Level 1positiveESMO Congress 2025
LBA8 IMvigor011: A phase III trial of circulating tumour (ct)DNA-guided adjuvant atezolizumab vs placebo in muscle-invasive bladder cancer
Powles, T.B. · Abstract LBA8 · LBA · IMvigor011 · 761 enrolled in surveillance; 250 ctDNA-positive patients randomized (167 atezolizumab, 83 placebo); 357 persistently ctDNA-negative
not named in the abstract
Among 250 eligible ctDNA-positive patients after cystectomy, adjuvant atezolizumab improved investigator-assessed DFS versus placebo (median 9.9 vs 4.8 months; HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.87; P=0.0047) and OS (median 32.8 vs 21.1 months; HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.39-0.90; P=0.0131). In 357 patients who remained ctDNA-negative, DFS was 95.4% at the end of 1-year monitoring and 88.4% at 2 years.
Full paperSlidesWebcastSlides + webcast. An ASCO or ESMO member login may be required.
Level 2
- PositiveSignateraLongitudinal Testing of Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.
Basu A, et al. Alan Tan is the senior author. JCO Precision Oncology. 2024. PMID 39693589. doi 10.1200/PO-24-00667
In 92 people with metastatic renal cell carcinoma, serial Signatera ctDNA negativity or clearance tracked with longer progression-free survival, and longitudinal positivity during surveillance tracked with shorter progression-free survival.
- PositiveNot named in the abstractAssociation of Tumor-informed Circulating Tumor DNA Detectability Before and After Radical Cystectomy with Disease-free Survival in Patients with Bladder Cancer.
Sfakianos JP, et al. European Urology Oncology. 2025. PMID 39013741. doi 10.1016/j.euo.2024.07.001
In a multicenter cohort, tumor-informed ctDNA detectability before and after radical cystectomy was studied against disease-free survival in bladder cancer. The abstract does not name the assay.
- PositiveNot named in the abstractUpdated Overall Survival by Circulating Tumor DNA Status from the Phase 3 IMvigor010 Trial: Adjuvant Atezolizumab Versus Observation in Muscle-invasive Urothelial Carcinoma.
Powles T, et al. European Urology. 2024. PMID 37500339. doi 10.1016/j.eururo.2023.06.007
An updated analysis of IMvigor010 reported overall survival by ctDNA status for adjuvant atezolizumab versus observation in muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma. The abstract does not name the assay.
- PositiveNot named in the abstractctDNA guiding adjuvant immunotherapy in urothelial carcinoma.
Powles T, et al. Nature. 2021. PMID 34135506. doi 10.1038/s41586-021-03642-9
In the IMvigor010 correlative analysis, 214 of 581 evaluable people were ctDNA-positive and had a poor prognosis; atezolizumab improved disease-free and overall survival in that group and not in the ctDNA-negative group.
- PositiveSignateraAdjuvant nivolumab versus placebo for high-risk muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma: 5-year efficacy and ctDNA results from CheckMate 274.
Galsky MD, et al. Annals of Oncology. 2026. PMID 41110694. doi 10.1016/j.annonc.2025.09.139
At 5 years, adjuvant nivolumab improved disease-free survival versus placebo (HR 0.74). In a post hoc Signatera analysis the disease-free survival HR was 0.35 if baseline ctDNA was detectable and 0.99 if it was not.
- PositivePCF_SELECTCirculating Tumor DNA in Oligoprogressive Prostate Cancer Treated With Stereotactic Radiotherapy: A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of a Nonrandomized Clinical Trial.
Reid A, et al. Demichelis, Tree, and Attard are co-senior authors. JAMA Network Open. 2026. PMID 43013307. doi 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.43400
Prespecified secondary analysis of the nonrandomized phase 2 TRAP trial. Plasma was tested with the previously validated prostate-directed PCF_SELECT panel before stereotactic body radiotherapy in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer and oligoprogression on abiraterone or enzalutamide. Of 77 evaluable patients (81 treated at 8 UK sites), 19 (24.7%) were ctDNA-positive. Six-month progression-free survival was 21.1% versus 58.3%, and median progression-free survival was 3.0 versus 7.8 months (log-rank P = .003; adjusted HR 2.18, 95% CI 1.21-3.94, P = .009). Median time to next therapy or death was 15.3 versus 29.6 months (adjusted HR 1.57, P = .20). Median overall survival was 27.2 versus 33.6 months (adjusted HR 2.24, P = .07). The trial was not randomized, so a prognostic association is not separated from a predictive one.
- Neutral or mixedSignateraReal-world adoption of circulating tumor DNA testing and adjuvant treatment decisions after radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer
Litt HK, Sahni A, Mo G, Patel K, Donovan M, Chow RD, Mamtani R. ESMO Open. 2026. PMID 42994396. doi 10.1016/j.esmoop.2026.108619
In a Flatiron Health analysis of 4,533 people after radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, documented Signatera testing 4-24 weeks after surgery increased over time (OR 1.16 per quarter) and was more common in high-risk pathology, but among 200 patients whose result preceded the treatment decision, detectable ctDNA was not independently associated with adjuvant therapy after adjustment (adjusted RR 1.34, 95% CI 0.89-2.02), while high-risk pathology was (adjusted RR 9.45).
- PositiveNot named in the abstractKIM-1 and Circulating Tumor DNA Are Prognostic Markers for Oligometastatic Clear-cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: Development of a Multivariable Prognostic Model
Tang C, Seo A, Sherry AD, Yang P, et al. (last author Xu W) Eur Urol. 2026. PMID 41765697. doi 10.1016/j.eururo.2026.01.004
In the NCT03575611 oligometastatic ccRCC cohort, baseline and 3-month plasma KIM-1 and ctDNA MRD status were each independently associated with systemic therapy-free survival, and a Weibull model combining baseline KIM-1, baseline ctDNA, and four clinical variables (K-COMPASS) had a C-index of 0.76.
- PositiveNot named in the abstractMetastasis-directed radiotherapy without systemic therapy for oligometastatic clear-cell renal-cell carcinoma: primary efficacy analysis of a single-arm, single-centre, phase 2 trial
Tang C, Sherry AD, Seo A, Hara K, et al. (last author Msaouel P) Lancet Oncol. 2025. PMID 40915303. doi 10.1016/S1470-2045(25)00380-8
Primary efficacy analysis of the single-arm phase 2 NCT03575611 trial: in 121 enrolled patients with oligometastatic ccRCC treated with metastasis-directed radiotherapy and no concurrent systemic therapy, median PFS was 17.7 months and median STFS was 34.0 months, meeting the prespecified 24-month STFS target.
- PositiveNot named in the abstractAddition of Metastasis-Directed Therapy to Standard of Care for Oligometastatic Disease: Primary Aggregated Analysis of All Baskets from the Phase II Randomized EXTEND Trial
Sherry AD, Haymaker C, Wang S, Liu S, et al. (last author Tang C) J Clin Oncol. 2026. PMID 42142259. doi 10.1200/JCO-25-02856
In the multicenter randomized phase 2 EXTEND basket trial, adding metastasis-directed therapy to standard of care improved PFS (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.41–0.72, P<.001) after a median follow-up of 53 months; exploratorily, detectable ctDNA at enrollment correlated with shorter PFS and survival, and ctDNA clearance at 3 months correlated with improved survival.
Conference data
- Level 2mixedASCO Annual Meeting 2026
ctDNA analysis in participants with renal cell carcinoma treated with adjuvant pembrolizumab or placebo in the KEYNOTE-564 trial.
Choueiri, Toni K. · Abstract 4502 · KEYNOTE-564 · 994 randomized (496 pembrolizumab, 498 placebo); baseline ctDNA in 736; cycle 5 day 1 ctDNA in 641
Natera Signatera RUO tissue-exome-based 16-plex and 64-plex assays
Baseline ctDNA was detectable in only 5.4% (16-plex) and 8.2% (64-plex) of 736 analyzed patients. ctDNA positivity was associated with worse DFS in both arms (P<0.05 for both assays), but sensitivity to predict DFS events was low and specificity was high. Among patients detectable at baseline and evaluable at cycle 5 day 1, clearance occurred in 6/10 vs 3/14 (16-plex) and 10/18 vs 9/25 (64-plex) with pembrolizumab vs placebo. The abstract concludes these data highlight limitations of these assays in clear-cell RCC.
- Level 2positiveASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2026
Urinary tumor DNA (utDNA) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in patients (pts) with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) who received perioperative durvalumab (D) in NIAGARA.
Van Der Heijden, Michiel S. · Abstract 636 · NIAGARA · 265 biomarker-evaluable (25% of 1063 randomized)
Signatera for ctDNA (named in the related NIAGARA ASCO 2025 abstract). utDNA as described in this abstract.
utDNA-positive rate fell from 85% at baseline to 55% pre-cystectomy. Clearance was associated with longer EFS (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.09-0.62) and was 12 percentage points higher with durvalumab (39% vs 27%). Pre-cystectomy utDNA-negative status was associated with pCR (72% [55/76] vs 18% [17/96] if utDNA-positive). Estimated 24-month EFS was 90% if dual-negative, 75% if utDNA-positive only, and 55% if dual-positive.
- Level 2positiveASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2026, Abstract 537 2026
Circulating KIM-1 and ctDNA as prognostic markers in oligometastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC): The K-COMPASS model.
Tang C · Abstract 537 · NCT03575611 · 112 patients with KIM-1 measurements; median baseline KIM-1 127.0 pg/mL (IQR 71.5–228.0)
Personalized ctDNA detection panels (≤2000 somatic variants) from tumor whole-genome sequencing (Myriad Genetics); plasma KIM-1
ASCO GU 2026 abstract 537: among 112 patients, baseline and 3-month KIM-1 and ctDNA MRD were each associated with STFS in univariable and multivariable analyses; K-COMPASS (baseline KIM-1, baseline ctDNA MRD, and four clinical variables) had C-index 0.76 and calibration slope 1.
- Level 2positiveESTRO 2026, Abstract 846 2026
Optimizing oligometastatic disease management with circulating tumor DNA: a correlative analysis from the phase II randomized EXTEND trial
Sherry AD · Abstract 846 · EXTEND (NCT03599765)
ESTRO 2026 abstract 846 (Sherry first, Tang last) is a correlative ctDNA analysis of the phase 2 randomized EXTEND trial. Title, authorship, DOI, and pagination were verified on CrossRef; the abstract body was not deposited, so no ESTRO-only numeric results are filed. Exploratory ctDNA findings are taken from the subsequent JCO paper (PMID 42142259), not from institutional news releases.
- Level 2positiveAACR Annual Meeting 2025, Abstract CT132 2025
Phase 2 trial of metastasis directed radiotherapy without systemic therapy (MRWS) for oligometastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) and investigation of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a personalized biomarker
Tang C · Abstract CT132 · NCT03575611 · 121 patients enrolled July 2018–May 2023 (NCT03575611)
Individualized ctDNA panels (Myriad Genetics) from tumor whole-genome sequencing; MRD+ if ctDNA detected
AACR 2025 abstract CT132 of NCT03575611: median PFS 18 months and median STFS 34 months in 121 patients; baseline ctDNA MRD+ in 56%, with shorter STFS (HR 2.9, 27 vs 54 months); 31% of baseline-MRD+ patients converted to MRD– at 3 months, and 3-month MRD+ was associated with shorter STFS (HR 4.3).
- Level 2positiveASCO Annual Meeting 2025
Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) who received perioperative durvalumab (D) in NIAGARA.
Powles, Thomas · Abstract 4503 · NIAGARA · 462 biomarker-evaluable of 1063 randomized (237 durvalumab arm, 225 control)
Signatera (named in the abstract)
ctDNA-positive rate was 57% (260/460) at baseline and fell to 22% (94/422) after neoadjuvant treatment, pre-cystectomy. Clearance from baseline to pre-cystectomy was 41% with durvalumab plus NAC vs 31% with NAC alone. Pre-cystectomy ctDNA-positive status was associated with non-pCR in 97% (86/89). Event-free survival benefit of perioperative durvalumab was observed in both baseline ctDNA-positive and ctDNA-negative groups. Post-cystectomy ctDNA-positive rate was 9% (31/345).
- Level 2positiveESMO Congress 2025
3068O Adjuvant nivolumab vs placebo for high-risk muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma: 5-year efficacy and ctDNA results from CheckMate 274
Galsky, M.D. · Abstract 3068O · oral · CheckMate 274 · 709 randomized (353 nivolumab, 356 placebo); ctDNA evaluable at cycle 1 day 1 in 133 (18.8%), of whom 54 (40.6%) were ctDNA-positive
Natera Signatera (exploratory)
With median follow-up 43.4 months, adjuvant nivolumab improved DFS versus placebo in the ITT population (median 21.9 vs 11.0 months; HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61-0.90). In the exploratory Signatera analysis, DFS HR was 0.35 (95% CI 0.2-0.7) in patients who were ctDNA-positive at cycle 1 day 1 (median 7.4 vs 2.8 months) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.5-1.9) in those who were ctDNA-negative.
Full paperSlidesWebcastSlides + webcast. An ASCO or ESMO member login may be required.
- Level 2positiveThe Oncologist, 2025, abstract 7 2025
Phase 2 trial of metastasis directed radiotherapy without systemic therapy (MRWS) for oligometastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) and investigation of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)
Tang C · Abstract 7 · NCT03575611 · 121 patients (NCT03575611)
Individualized ctDNA panels (Myriad Genetics) from tumor whole-genome sequencing
The Oncologist abstract 7 reports the same NCT03575611 ctDNA analysis as AACR CT132, with baseline MRD+ in 56% (STFS HR 2.9, 27 vs 54 months) and 3-month MRD+ STFS HR 4.3; a few clinical tallies differ slightly from CT132 and are not pooled.
- Level 2prognosticASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2022
Molecular residual disease (MRD) detection with a tissue comprehensive genomic profiling (CGP)-informed personalized monitoring assay: An exploratory analysis of the IMvigor-010 observation arm.
Young, Amanda · Abstract 448 · IMvigor010 (observation arm) · 182 patients on the observation arm evaluated at the MRD timepoint
tissue comprehensive genomic profiling-informed personalized monitoring assay (Foundation Medicine approach, as described in the abstract)
ctDNA was detected at the MRD timepoint in 66/182 (36%). Of those 66, 58 (88% PPV) had relapsed at analysis. Median DFS from randomization was 3 months if ctDNA-positive versus not reached if negative (HR 5.7, 95% CI 3.8-8.6); median OS 13 months vs not reached (HR 5.7, 95% CI 3.4-9.7).
Level 3
- Neutral or mixedTARDISUltrasensitive Circulating Tumor DNA Pilot Study Distinguishes Complete Response and Partial Response With Immunotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.
Chehrazi-Raffle A, et al. JCO Precision Oncology. 2023. PMID 37027813. doi 10.1200/PO.22.00543
The TARDIS targeted digital sequencing assay was used at a single time point to compare ctDNA in people with metastatic renal cell carcinoma who had a complete versus partial response to immune checkpoint inhibition.
Conference data
- Level 3prognosticASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2026
Whole genome–based ultrasensitive circulating tumor DNA clearance as a biomarker of exceptional outcomes with enfortumab vedotin and pembrolizumab in urothelial carcinoma: Preliminary real-world results.
Zerey, Mehmet Murat · Abstract 866 · 27 patients, 118 plasma samples; single-institution retrospective
Next Personal Dx tumor-informed whole-genome sequencing assay (up to 1,800 patient-specific variants; detection down to about 1 part per million), as stated in the abstract
Among evaluable patients, 11 (48%) achieved ctDNA clearance after a median of 3 EVP cycles and 12 (52%) had persistent positivity. The abstract states clearance correlated with exceptional clinical and radiographic outcomes, and persistent positivity identified residual or progressive disease. Median follow-up 13.8 months; 19 of 27 remained under surveillance, including 9 with metastatic disease.
- Level 3prognosticASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2026
Use of ultra-sensitive whole genome circulating tumor DNA detection to predict early recurrence in high-risk localized RCC after nephrectomy: Preliminary real-world findings.
Amaral, Paulo Siqueira do · Abstract 516 · 22 patients, 42 plasma samples; single-center retrospective
Next Personal Dx whole-genome tumor-informed assay (Personalis)
At a median follow-up of 7.0 months, 3 of 22 patients (14%) were ctDNA-positive at any timepoint (all <100 ppm); 2 of those 3 developed radiographic recurrence. Only 1 of 20 patients negative at the 3-month landmark recurred, and 0 of 16 with persistent ctDNA negativity recurred during follow-up.
- Level 3prognosticASCO Annual Meeting 2025
Association of tumor-informed ctDNA-based molecular residual disease (MRD) with clinical outcomes for upper tract urothelial cancer (UTUC).
Ayanambakkam, Adanma · Abstract 4565 · 45 patients with stage I-IV UTUC, 349 plasma samples
Signatera (tumor-informed)
ctDNA detection was 70.8% in the MRD window (n=24) and 68.8% during surveillance (n=32). Positivity was associated with inferior RFS (MRD window HR 13.4, P=0.012; surveillance HR 14.46, P=0.01). 12-month RFS was 32.1% and 45.5% if positive vs 100% if negative in those windows. On multivariate analysis during surveillance, ctDNA positivity was the only factor significantly associated with poor RFS (HR 17.6, P=0.011).
- Level 3neutralASCO Annual Meeting 2024, Abstract 3039 2024
Comparison of primary versus metastatic tumor tissue sources when designing panels for whole genome–based tumor-informed ctDNA assays in clear cell renal cell carcinoma.
Seo A · Abstract 3039 · 5 patients; 13 primary-tumor, 24 metastatic-lesion, and matched buffy-coat samples; baseline plasma before radiotherapy
Myriad Genetics High-Definition MRD assay: tumor/normal WGS (median coverage 30x); a sub-panel of up to 1,000 somatic variants designed for each lesion subsite; hybridization capture from plasma cfDNA
ASCO 2024 methods abstract (Seo first, Tang last): in 5 oligometastatic ccRCC patients, baseline MRD calls from Myriad High-Definition MRD sub-panels designed from primary-tumor vs metastatic subsites were fully concordant in 3 of 5 patients, at tumor fractions from 0.0004% to 0.027%.
- Level 3prognosticASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2024
Longitudinal circulating tumor DNA monitoring for detection of molecular residual disease in patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma.
Patel, Mukti · Abstract 11 · 7 patients with advanced HPV-unassociated penile squamous cell carcinoma; single-center retrospective
Signatera (personalized tumor-informed)
Assays were designed for all 7 patients, and ctDNA was detectable at least once in all. Rising ctDNA prompted imaging that showed progression in 3 patients. Two of 7 remained alive with sustained clearance and 3 with persistent positivity had died at the time of the report.
- Level 3prognosticASCO Annual Meeting 2023
Association of tumor-informed minimal residual disease (MRD) with clinical outcomes for muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC): A multicenter retrospective real-world analysis.
Kommalapati, Ajitha · Abstract 3050 · 109 patients, 545 plasma samples; multicenter retrospective
Signatera (tumor-informed)
ctDNA positivity at the first post-surgical timepoint was associated with shorter DFS (HR 9.9, 95% CI 4.1-24; 65.79% of positive patients had recurred vs 8.45% of negative). Anytime post-cystectomy positivity: HR 25 (95% CI 5.9-103); 96.83% of persistently negative patients had no recurrence. Median lead time to imaging recurrence was 61 days. In multivariate analysis, anytime ctDNA positivity was the only significant factor associated with shorter DFS (HR 23.07).
- Level 3prognosticASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium 2023
Longitudinal detection of circulating tumor DNA in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma.
Basu, Arnab · Abstract 715 · 41 patients with advanced RCC
Signatera (tumor-informed)
ctDNA was detected at any time point in 70% (29/41). All 14 patients who progressed had ctDNA detected ahead of radiographic progression (100% sensitivity in this series) with a median lead time of 13.6 weeks (range 1-39.7). Concordance between clinical outcome and ctDNA status was 78% (32/41).